Why Justin Thomas could be headed to a comeback year in 2025

As professional golf’s fall season continues and the sport remains in its general offseason, it’s a good time for The Athletic to dive into some broader debates and discussions about what we expect in 2025. Consider it a chance to engage in barroom golf discussion. If you have any topics or ideas you want to hear from our writers on, please do suggest in the comments.

First, let’s discuss who I’m buying stock in for 2025.

There’s a line that gets thrown around by golfers pretty often. Think of it as their version of football coaches talking about the turnover battle or baseball players reducing each weird break over a long season as “that’s just baseball.” It’s the routine oversimplification golfers use to explain their form in a volatile sport where results might not tell us the whole story.

“I’m not getting enough out of my game right now.”

The simple translation? They feel like they’re playing good golf but not scoring well enough to match it. The even more simple breakdown? It usually means they’re not putting well.

And no golfer uttered this phrase more in 2024 than Justin Thomas. Yes, the Ryder Cup star with two PGA Championship trophies and 15 PGA Tour wins, a former world No. 1 who fell so far in 2023 he didn’t even qualify for the FedEx Cup playoffs and whose inclusion on the Ryder Cup team became a huge debate. And as Thomas failed to win a single tournament this year or even really contend, it became easy for the masses to generalize that Thomas was still in his 2023 struggles.

With PGA Tour cards on the line, the 2024 season enters its final stretch

It’s why at the 2024 PGA Championship in his hometown of Louisville (and many other times after), Thomas said, “I feel like I’m playing well. I feel like I haven’t necessarily gotten as much out of my golf as I feel like I’ve been playing, which can be frustrating at times. But it also just reminds me that I am close and I just need to kind of stay patient.”

The thing is he’s right. That’s why I’m buying a comeback year for Thomas that ends with a win on tour and a Ryder Cup selection.

The memory of his 2023 disaster — he fell to No. 70 on DataGolf and No. 71 in the FedEx Cup standings — has had a long tail. When Thomas was left off the Presidents Cup team in September, many argued in favor of the decision like he was still that player from 2023. He’s been back in the top 25 for 11 months. As of this moment, he’s No. 18 on DataGolf. He’s not back to the JT we all know, but he was the seventh-best eligible U.S. golfer this season in true strokes gained.

Wasn’t sure if I’d want to watch or not, but mannnnn have I enjoyed watching this @PresidentsCup. Some serious golf and emotion going on out there. Kills me to be watching from home but I’m cheering hard for team USA. LFG BOYS

— Justin Thomas (@JustinThomas34) September 29, 2024

All of his underlying numbers in driving, approach and short game improved. He’s not quite at his peak ball-striking numbers from 2017 to 2021, but he ranks No. 7 in the world in approach. He still gains 10 percent distance off the tee compared to the field. It is incorrect to say he’s still lost.

So then why did Thomas finish in the top 30 only nine times in 23 starts? Why did he miss the cut at two majors and struggle to put four rounds together at so many big tests? There are probably two reasons.

The first is the aforementioned putting. Even in his world No. 1 peak years, he was never a great putter. Thomas’ best-ever putting season gained 0.33 strokes on the field. In general, he’s been dead average. But it’s become a true mess. He got worse in 2024 than the year before. Besides a few bad weeks, Thomas played great tee-to-green golf in almost every tournament. The problem was he’d finish sixth at Pebble Beach while losing an entire stroke putting or lead the Players Championship in ball striking but miss the cut because his putting lost him 1.65 strokes. There was a similarity to Scottie Scheffler’s 2023 — there were multiple weeks in which Thomas could have won if he was just an average putter again. It cost him again last weekend in a T2 at the ZOZO Championship in Japan.

Putting is part of golf. It shouldn’t be yada-yada’d. But Thomas is not some flavor of the week. He is just 31 and has more PGA Tour victories than Jordan Spieth, Jason Day or Brooks Koepka. Nearly double Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay, who are about the same age. And most players of Thomas’ level go through rough spells. Let’s not forget Rory McIlroy’s messes of 2018 and 2021.

This prediction is expecting some slight positive regression for Thomas in putting. If not, nothing will change.

What the PGA Tour’s plan to reduce cards and field sizes means

But the other reasons for Thomas’ inconsistencies are less tangible but arguably more important. It’s what is in his head. And that can be seen best by how Thomas has played lately on the biggest stages.

In the 10 major starts since his epic 2022 PGA Championship win at Southern Hills, Thomas has just one finish better than T31. You know how I just said he’s been great tee-to-green all season? Well, the only three weeks where he clearly struggled there were the Genesis Invitational, the Masters and the U.S. Open. You know, the most pressure-filled weeks.

Justin Thomas has struggled in the majors since his 2022 PGA Championship win. (Andrew Redington / Getty Images)
To dig even deeper, Thomas developed a trend of playing well before collapsing at these tournaments.

He was in the top 10 at Augusta entering the second round back nine before ending the final four holes in double-double-bogey-double to miss the cut in historic fashion. He led the Scottish Open with a first-round 62 only to finish T62. He then led the Open Championship at Royal Troon after 18 holes only to shoot 78 the next day. He bounced back with a 67 on Saturday — then shot 77 on Sunday. It was the perfect example of his volatility.

For Thomas to return to being one of the best players in the world, he needs to regain his mental composure, a hallmark of his major championship successes and Ryder Cup triumphs.

“I think at least I’ve learned that you can’t just want it to get better and it magically gets better,” he said in May. “I think I’ve — kind of realizing certain times, it’s like, okay, acknowledging that I’m feeling certain things or thinking a certain way and then doing something about it or trying to shift how I’m thinking about it or what I’m doing.

“It’s tough.”

We can see Justin Thomas, the elite golfer, is not far away. We see the ball striking and the short game. The challenge might be in his head. I’m betting that he figures it out. The great ones do.